Eff stacks are about $175.

I just sat down on the table, and it has been less than 2 orbits short handed with 6 players.

Villain is directly to the my right, has about $500 in front of him and in my very first hand I was involved in, I raised UTG having AK, where the SB called as did the villain in BB. Flop came air, and SB checked, villain bet like $20, and both me and the SB folded.

An orbit later, everyone folds to villain who decides to limp in the SB instead of chopping. Dealer and players look confused as to why we don't chop and I say 'if he wants to play, I'll play.. I haven't looked yet'. I see KJ in the BB and check. SB then says "I'm trying to hint something here." Flop is 7-5-J with two clubs, I don't have a club. SB bets $5, I call. Turn is the Qd. BB then bets $15. Now I really smell something fishy and fold. He turns over AA.

Another orbit later, I have in MP in a straddled hand. Villain is UTG, limps for $5. I raise to $25, all fold back to villain who calls.

Flop is .

Villain checks, I bet $40, Villain check raises to $90.

Your move?

Insta-all-in

how many limpers called the straddle? do you remember the pot size?

shove

seems like another cooler?

Yeah as others have posted you should put your chips in the middle. He could have a FD, worse overpairs or even some BS like A7. Sure he might have limp-called with QQ+ or flopped a set, but unless he's a super nit, which doesn't seem to be the case you gotta shove.

Neither hand was a cooler

Can anyone make a reasonable case for a play other than a shove? I guess you can call as long as you arent chickening out on most if not all turn cards.

Results?

The problem is there isn't enough information to make any decision other than the standard play. I'll try to post a live hand (to ruin the surprise, I lost) with some more reads.

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I've been at the table for about 2-3 orbits. Villain (about $400 behind by the time my hand happened) in this hand is an older gentleman who has been playing every hand so far.

Hand #1 - OTB, he min-raised a CO open ($120 stack) from $10 to $20 with TT and instacalled a very slow shove by CO.

Hand #2 - Remember, he is playing close to 100% VPIP for the last 20-30 hands since I've sat down. There was a LP raiser and he called (3rd caller in) in the blinds. Flop was babies and checked thru. Turn was an A and villain bets $15 into an $80 pot. Initial LP raiser pops it up to $65 and villain calls. The board up to this point is very dry and there don't appear to be any draws. River is a K and villain checks and tanks to LP raiser shove of slightly less than PSB. Villain eventually folds. My read is that he had a crappyish Ace.

Onto the hand in question. This was the 3rd or 4th out of 20/30 hands I've played. One time was limped to my BB multiway and I took it down with a turn bet. The other times I made a normal pfr and took the pot down with a FCB. After a straddle and an UTG limper, I raise LP with QQ to $25. Villain asks me for my stack amount and then calls in the SB. Pot size is about $60 and is HU with me in position. Flop comes 985 with two spades. Villain checks and I bet $40 into the pot. Villain thinks a bit and raises to $90. I obvious think cooler if he has a set and shove.

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Further analysis. I realize that there weren't many hands to base reads on, but I think the average rec player doesn't think about balancing ranges, etc and plays all his hands the same way. So to recap what my decision making should have been on that flop:

1) Villain appears to raise TT+ preflop. So we can reduce the probability that he has TT+ (not eliminate, just reduce the probability)
2) Villain will call smallish bets with 2nd best hands.
3) Villain (over the course of the 20/30 hands, did not raise pre or post flop except for the one time he raised pf with TT)
4) I have been very tight (maybe noticeable, maybe not)

So if the bulk of his range is overs, flush draws, PPs and random air, I should bet an amount that he call easily call with a worse hand. So into the $60 pot a bet of $25-35 dollars should keep in crappy hands that had mediocre equity against my QQ (i.e. around 30% as an estimate). If I get raised, I can reasonably narrow his range of hands to:

a) flush draws (based on my read he would mostly c/c with his flush draws)
b) TT+ (less likely for him to NOT reraise preflop and now check raise the flop)
c) straight draws (see flush draws)
d) combo draws (since he seemed fishy, I don't give him credit for recognizing strong combo draws, so again based on my read he would c/c these)
e) sets

In retrospect, if I were to put %'s to these possibilities I would think that he had a set at least 60-70% of the time (I simply couldn't see him check raising the flop without a set the majority of the time), with the remaining options taking up the rest of his hand range.

Is this thought process reasonable based on the small number of hands (again, with live, there isn't really a large sample size to work with) or flawed based on results oriented thinking? I've obviously using both the hands I'd observed along with stereotyping this player based on looks, play style, etc. If I had just sat down and didn't see the previous hands obv I shove the flop or shove the turn (slowplay). Does observing those additional hands in this particular situation warrant making a play different than the "standard" play?

No way. A thing I dont see discussed very often is the relative importance of all the bits and pieces of info we collect in our "reads" of an opponent. You've listed many pieces of info we have on the villain, but I think still the most important thing to realize are 1) we have a very small samples size 2) players can change their play from one hand to the next 3) fishier players are more likely to let their emotions affect their play.

All that said, this guy is simply playing way too many hands and going way too far. Against guys like that you focus less on what he has and more on the absolute strength of your hand.

Since your hand is a strong overpair on a rag-ish flop, you simply forget about folding, and instead focus on getting the most value from his worst hands. I quite literally ignore the fact that a guy that plays a lot of hands can flop a set or the nuts.

Note: my "all-inclusive" variable RDF accounts for all those bits and pieces of info you have collected and the fact that many players are unpredictable.

I raise to $20 preflop for manageability, rather than $25

I check flop back for control, value, and further street manageability.

welcome back